Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 2.466894 2.894480 3.369085 3.934238 4.588180 5.320357 6.201587
2025-11-02 1.693008 2.231125 2.895221 3.771930 4.895535 6.283617 8.124594
2025-11-09 1.208886 1.758391 2.500003 3.567133 5.055233 7.047434 9.905590
2025-11-16 0.933662 1.478240 2.271533 3.499393 5.337211 7.967503 11.993695
2025-11-23 0.749663 1.279329 2.104494 3.465641 5.631721 8.914896 14.226278
2025-11-30 0.652830 1.190127 2.077923 3.625859 6.223246 10.359052 17.373542
2025-12-07 0.553209 1.072900 1.980072 3.645251 6.579241 11.466847 20.121462
2025-12-14 0.469837 0.965793 1.877181 3.632133 6.867304 12.485425 22.834366
2025-12-21 0.405359 0.880116 1.795565 3.638760 7.182023 13.575709 25.788447
2025-12-28 0.384632 0.876352 1.865412 3.935963 8.063967 15.764162 30.939954
2026-01-04 0.344874 0.824821 1.831958 4.024009 8.555396 17.290337 35.045094
2026-01-11 0.313428 0.785004 1.815088 4.140944 9.115332 19.003621 39.689856
2026-01-18 0.276278 0.726199 1.750989 4.154876 9.480333 20.407249 43.952524
2026-01-25 0.234049 0.646681 1.627918 4.021438 9.517858 21.164653 47.024639
2026-02-01 0.194313 0.564616 1.484158 3.816708 9.368267 21.513860 49.292686
2026-02-08 0.168490 0.513211 1.404496 3.749051 9.516925 22.512727 53.056347
2026-02-15 0.148077 0.472039 1.342826 3.714654 9.736862 23.690945 57.344467
2026-02-22 0.139346 0.462505 1.361472 3.886327 10.477230 26.127544 64.731496
2026-03-01 0.125453 0.434349 1.324940 3.907254 10.844317 27.738034 70.386180
2026-03-08 0.112018 0.404512 1.278348 3.893325 11.119880 29.161529 75.755673
2026-03-15 0.100912 0.379631 1.241494 3.900430 11.451348 30.757579 81.714688
2026-03-22 0.100071 0.389278 1.309045 4.217758 12.662328 34.673403 93.798331
2026-03-29 0.092864 0.375055 1.301127 4.311751 13.269232 37.121224 102.447415